The Business Press – June 27, 2023 at 03:57AM
The recent Wagner Group Rebellion shook Russia, as military troops attempted to overthrow President Vladimir Putin. Although Putin has survived this challenge, history has shown that surviving a rebellion is not necessarily a victory.
It is, in fact, a tough lesson from history that is worth considering in all countries. A damaged leader can survive this style of challenge due to the power of incumbency, but once the aura of invincibility is pierced, things can go south quickly.
Further, even though Putin appears to have weathered the storm, Western intelligence parties still have a number of “known unknowns” about Putin and his vassal allies. Being commander in chief of one of the largest military complexes and holding the world’s largest reserve of nuclear weapons comes with its own advantages and disadvantages.
A leadership vacuum in Russia could easily turn into a quagmire in the region, creating chaos out of a previously stable and consistently autocratic state. However, the threat of loose nukes still looms large, and this devil’s bargain is familiar to Russia watchers.
All in all, history has shown that even in a country with a strong history rooted in democratic norms, a political rebellion can have similarly striking results.
The Business Press 