The Business Press – July 03, 2023 at 09:00PM
Thailand witnessed an eagerly anticipated election seven weeks ago, signaling a potential shift in the country’s political landscape after nearly a decade of junta rule under the military government. Although regarded as a repudiation of the ruling military junta, the path ahead remains uncertain as the formation of a new government faces significant challenges. With crucial decisions pending, the future of Thailand’s politics hangs in the balance.
The Move Forward Party emerged as the leading opposition party, securing 151 seats and campaigning on a platform that aimed to reduce the influence of the military and monarchy while supporting social welfare programs. Pheu Thai, a populist party rooted in nostalgia for the past rule of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, secured 141 seats, closely following Move Forward.
The Bhumjaithai Party, a conservative party that had previously aligned with the military-backed coalition government, secured 71 seats. Meanwhile, the junta-aligned Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation parties secured just 40 and 36 seats, respectively.
Scenario 1: Move Forward’s Coalition Forms a Government:
Move Forward and Pheu Thai joined forces with six other parties to establish a 312-seat coalition alliance. While Move Forward expressed confidence in acquiring Senate support, this remains uncertain due to opposition from military-aligned parties. Additionally, the controversy surrounding Pita Limjaroenrat’s eligibility for the Prime Minister position presents a potential obstacle to his candidacy.
Scenario 2: Pheu Thai Takes the Lead:
If Pita does not attain the necessary Senate support or is disqualified, Pheu Thai may assume a leading role within the coalition alliance. Unity between the two leading opposition parties is paramount, and negotiations have been ongoing to ensure a smooth transition of power.
Scenario 3: Pheu Thai forms a Coalition without Move Forward:
There are speculations that Pheu Thai could abandon the coalition alliance with Move Forward and align itself with parties favoring the military and monarchy. However, such a move risks compromising the credibility of Pheu Thai among its supporters, who were instrumental in previous clashes with the monarchy’s supporters.
Scenario 4: Conservative Forces Head a Minority Government:
In the event that Move Forward and Pheu Thai fail to secure support, a minority coalition of conservative parties may emerge. However, such a coalition would face considerable challenges due to the need for extensive deal-making and potential opposition from the lower house.
Scenario 5: The Military’s Continued Influence:
While the possibility of another military coup cannot be ruled out entirely, experts suggest it is unlikely. Nevertheless, the military could employ other means to prevent Move Forward from assuming power, potentially maintaining their influence without resorting to a coup.
Thailand’s recent elections have brought hope for change, but the path to a new government remains uncertain. The outcome will depend on intricate dynamics between key players and the delicate balance of power. As the uncertainty continues, Thailand’s political future hangs in the balance, and the nation awaits the formation of a government that will lead it into a new era.
The Business Press 