Ukraine’s hopes of gaining near-term membership in NATO were recently dampened by President Joe Biden’s statement that the country is not ready to join the alliance amidst an ongoing war. Nevertheless, the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, promises significant developments for Ukraine. One of the key outcomes will be the establishment of the inaugural NATO-Ukraine Council, serving as a platform for consultations and decision-making between Kyiv and NATO’s member states.
The creation of the NATO-Ukraine Council marks an important step in Ukraine’s journey towards NATO accession. This move, while not unprecedented, provides Ukraine with more representation and influence within the alliance. The council will serve as a channel for crisis management and facilitate deeper cooperation between Kyiv and NATO members. Emily Ferris, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, states that although Ukraine’s position is strengthened by this development, the benefits it will gain from this new access are yet to be determined.
The potential removal of certain membership requirements, such as an extensive “membership action plan” (MAP), could indicate a significant win for Ukraine. However, without clear indicators of Ukraine’s future in NATO, this council’s establishment could be viewed as a delaying tactic by Kyiv.
Ukraine has responded positively to the creation of the NATO-Ukraine Council, and President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend its first meeting. The council is considered an element of Ukraine’s process towards NATO membership, with Kyiv anticipating specific recommendations for defense and security sector reforms. Yehor Cherniev, head of the Ukrainian delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, expresses the hope that the council will offer practical assistance and guidance for Ukraine’s future membership. While the council represents progress, it is not viewed by experts as sufficient on its own.
Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe, believes that only full NATO membership can provide effective long-term security for Ukraine and Europe. While some members are exploring alternative arrangements to provide Ukraine with long-term security assurances similar to the U.S.-Israel relationship, these fall short of genuine security guarantees. Hodges emphasizes that a treaty, such as NATO’s Article 5, which considers an attack on one member as an attack on all, is essential for true assurance.
The NATO summit faces the challenge of determining the conditions under which Ukraine will be granted membership. When and how the ongoing war ends will significantly impact Ukraine’s path forward. If the conflict transition. resembles a “frozen conflict” akin to Moldova’s situation with Transnistria, it could hinder Ukraine’s membership aspirations for an extended period. NATO’s reluctance to engage in an active war is understandable, but the conditions for a satisfactory end must be considered carefully before membership can be granted.
The establishment of the NATO-Ukraine Council at the upcoming summit signifies progress for Ukraine’s bid to join NATO. However, the council alone is not enough to guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security and membership. The challenges of ending the war and determining the appropriate conditions for membership remain complex. Whether Ukraine eventually gains full membership will depend on a combination of factors, including a resolution to the conflict and the alignment of strategic interests. Only time will tell if Ukraine achieves its long-awaited NATO aspirations.
The Business Press 