Guatemala’s tumultuous history is marked by significant events that have had far-reaching consequences for the Latin American region. From movements for democratization to political coups and, more recently, anti-corruption protests, this vibrant country has been a bellwether of change. As voters prepare for a crucial runoff election on August 20, Guatemala finds itself at another crossroads. This election pits anti-corruption campaigner Bernardo Arévalo against establishment-backed candidate Sandra Torres. Arévalo’s reformist agenda and the promise of tackling corruption and strengthening state institutions have resonated with the Guatemalan people, leading to his strong lead in the polls.
Arévalo’s Semilla party has positioned itself as a catalyst for change by targeting the notorious corruption plaguing Guatemala. They believe that corruption lies at the root of many societal issues, including violence and poverty, which have contributed to mass emigration. Semilla’s members of Congress, many of whom were involved in the Guatemalan Spring anti-corruption protests, are committed to breaking away from traditional practices such as kickbacks and vote-buying, instead focusing on resolving problems and passing crucial legislation. Their proposed antitrust law aims to foster fair competition and empower small- and medium-sized businesses. Additionally, improving education and healthcare are key priorities on their agenda.
Arévalo’s campaign style has garnered significant support, particularly from the urban middle class, millennials, and Gen Z. Contrasting with the grandiose campaigns of traditional politicians, Arévalo and his team operate from a modest rented space, driving their own cars. This down-to-earth approach resonates with the voters, who are seeking change from the established political class.
Although Arévalo holds a significant lead in the polls, powerful political forces have come out against him. Attorney General Consuelo Porras, accused of obstructing anti-corruption investigations, has initiated legal cases that could hinder Semilla’s leadership positions in Congress and possibly lead to the arrest of party leaders. However, the international community, including the US, EU, and the Organization of American States, has strongly condemned these actions as election interference. The outcome of these cases and the unrelenting opposition from Torres and her political allies may pose challenges to Arévalo’s path to victory.
Even if Arévalo emerges as the winner of the election, a daunting task awaits him and his Semilla party. With only 23 out of 160 seats in Congress and limited viable coalition partners, effectively governing and implementing their reformist agenda will be a formidable challenge. Nevertheless, Arévalo’s closing campaign rally exuded an undeniable sense of hope and determination. As the crowd cheered, the echoes of Guatemala’s past democratic heroes were heard, instilling a belief that progress and change were once again within reach.
As Guatemala stands at this critical juncture, the outcome of the runoff election holds immense importance. Should Arévalo and Semilla secure victory and successfully lead the country against all odds, Guatemala has the potential to transform from a cautionary tale into a beacon of forward-looking change in Latin America. With the promise of tackling corruption, strengthening institutions, and addressing societal issues, Arévalo’s victory would signify a new chapter in Guatemala’s history, proving that lasting positive change can be achieved through dedicated efforts and the will of the people.
The Business Press 